Jerusalem: In a significant shift of military operations, Israel has intensified its aggression in northern Gaza, an area previously declared neutralised by Israeli forces. This resurgence of conflict follows the Israeli army’s earlier assertion in January that it had “completed the dismantling of Hamas’s military framework in the northern Gaza Strip.” Despite this, Hamas fighters have managed to regroup, leading to fierce clashes in the northern town of Jabalia, described by a military spokesman as “perhaps the fiercest” in over seven months of ongoing crisis.
On Saturday, the Israeli military issued new evacuation orders for residents near Gaza City, just south of Jabalia, indicating an escalation of operations in the area.
Current Conflict Zones
Israeli troops, after weeks of relatively low-intensity fighting and amidst truce negotiations, on May 7th entered Rafah, a densely populated city in the far south of Gaza. The Israeli army has labelled Rafah as the last Hamas stronghold in the region. Since the beginning of this incursion, the UN reports that approximately 800,000 civilians have been displaced. Concurrently, fighting has reignited in central and northern areas of Gaza, with heavy bombardments and street battles reported in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza. Recently, Palestinian fighters and Israeli troops have also clashed in northern Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza City’s Zeitun neighbourhood, and other surrounding areas.
Hamas’s Resilience
Despite Israel’s vow to dismantle Hamas, the militant group remains resilient. Experts suggest that the widespread devastation among Palestinian civilians has facilitated Hamas’s recruitment efforts. Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s College London, notes, “If you look at the devastation among Palestinian civilians across the board, it’s quite easy to recruit these people into armed resistance.”
Hamas’s extensive tunnel network, estimated to span over 500 kilometres, remains largely intact. The group continues to utilize its home-made “Yassin 105” anti-tank missiles, frequently targeting Israeli troops. Michael Wahid Hanna, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, highlights Hamas’s strategic advantage: “They’re an embedded foe fighting on their home territory, and that creates real resilience.”
Challenges for Israeli Control
Israel’s efforts to maintain control have faced significant challenges. The decentralised nature of Hamas’s command structure has made it resilient to leadership decapitation strategies. “That’s the whole problem with Israeli approaches — they’re always looking to go for the leaders. But in reality, it’s a network and networks don’t fall apart,” says Krieg.
Despite having one of the most powerful militaries globally, with a defence budget of $27.5 billion last year, Israel has struggled to achieve decisive victories. The use of advanced technology, including AI, has not translated into lasting control, partly due to internal political infighting within Israel’s war cabinet. Bilal Y. Saab, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank, emphasizes, “You can’t achieve sustainable military objectives in the absence of a political strategy for the day after.”
Extent of Hamas Damage
Hamas, which has governed Gaza since 2007, initially had about 30,000 fighters. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that “14,000 fighters were killed,” it remains unclear how many Hamas fighters have actually been lost. The Gaza health ministry does not differentiate between fighters and civilians in its fatality reports. Experts believe Hamas has likely replenished its ranks swiftly. Security expert H. A. Hellyer notes, “For every Hamas member that they kill, the Israelis are providing recruitment potential for four, because of the anger generated by the many more civilians the IDF (army) is killing.” Consequently, eradicating Hamas completely remains a formidable challenge for Israel.
As the conflict continues to evolve, the humanitarian impact and the prospects for lasting peace remain uncertain, with both sides preparing for prolonged engagement.