Iran is gearing up for a pivotal presidential election following the tragic demise of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, sparking intense speculation over the succession to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With the registration for candidates set to commence, the Iranian political landscape braces for a race dominated by hardliners vying to secure a successor staunchly loyal to Khamenei’s vision.
Raisi, once considered a potential successor to Khamenei, leaves a void that hardliners are eager to fill, fueling a contest to influence the selection of Iran’s next leader. At 85, Khamenei seeks a president who will uphold his ideals and ensure stability, especially amidst maneuvering over the eventual succession to his position.
Analysts predict that the next president is likely to be a hardliner with ties to the Revolutionary Guards, reflecting unwavering loyalty to Khamenei. However, the process is not without its challenges. The Guardian Council, tasked with vetting candidates, often disqualifies contenders without publicizing reasons, leading to concerns about limited choices on the ballot and low voter turnout.
In previous elections, turnout has been a key concern for the clerical establishment. Raisi’s victory in 2021 saw a turnout of only 49%, a significant drop from previous years, attributed to widespread apathy and discontent over economic hardships and political restrictions.
To address this challenge, some analysts suggest including moderate candidates on the ballot to attract a larger turnout. Reformists, advocating for improved relations with the West and gradual reforms, remain hopeful but cautious about their prospects in the upcoming election.
While the registration of candidates is yet to be finalized, potential contenders include Parviz Fattah, a former Guards member, and Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator. Additionally, figures like interim President Mohammad Mokhber and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani are also mentioned as possible candidates, signaling a diverse pool of contenders despite the anticipated dominance of hardliners.
Regardless of the outcome, experts believe that the new president is unlikely to deviate from Iran’s established nuclear and foreign policies, both firmly under the control of the supreme leader. As Iran navigates this critical juncture in its political landscape, the eyes of the world remain fixed on the outcome of the upcoming election and its implications for the future trajectory of the Islamic Republic.